Calibration and Validation of a Ca Based Model for Urban Development Simulation Using an Evolutionary Algorithm. a Case Study in Mexico City. Cupum 05 London

Disordered and non-regulated urban growth in the outskirts of Mexico City represents a major problem that has led to the degradation of both natural and social environments. The following study was undertaken to provide decision-making agencies with a suitable tool to generate probable scenarios of urban development based on a given set of hypothetical conditions, such as the implementation of urban policies or urban infrastructure developments. Variations of Cellular Automata (CA) based models have been applied to study the evolution of urban systems in terms of land use, traffic, and intra-urban migration. Calibration of these models is a central need that requires special attention. In this study we use an evolutionary algorithm as a tool to calibrate a CA based model built specifically to mimic the dynamics of land development in vulnerable areas of Mexico City.